Construction projects rarely unfold exactly as planned. Scope changes, design variations, access restrictions, resource constraints, and unforeseen site conditions all create uncertainty that can affect programme performance and project outcomes. What-if and scenario analysis allows project teams to model the programme implications of different situations, decisions, and risks before they occur — enabling informed decision-making, proactive risk management, and better commercial outcomes. Our What-If and Scenario Analysis services help contractors, project managers, and owners understand the schedule consequences of change, assess options, and make confident decisions backed by rigorous analysis.
What We Do
Scope Change Impact Assessment
Model the programme impact of proposed scope changes before they are approved. We develop what-if scenarios that incorporate the additional work, assess the impact on the critical path and completion date, and quantify the extension of time required. We provide project teams and clients with clear, evidence-based analysis of the schedule consequences of scope changes before commitments are made.Design Variation Analysis
Assess the programme implications of design variations and late design changes. We model the impact of design changes on construction sequences, activity durations, and resource requirements. We identify which design variations affect the critical path and quantify their impact on project completion. We support timely EOT notifications and variation claims.Access & Possession Scenario Modelling
Model the programme implications of changes to access arrangements, possession windows, and site availability. We assess the impact of reduced access, delayed possession, or changed access conditions on the construction sequence and completion date. We identify the most efficient use of available access and develop alternative staging strategies where access is constrained.Risk Event Scenario Analysis
Model the programme impact of identified risk events to understand their potential consequences before they occur. We develop scenarios for key risks — weather events, utility conflicts, ground conditions, third-party delays — and assess their impact on the critical path and completion date. We support risk management planning and contingency allocation with quantified schedule risk analysis.Procurement & Interface Delay Scenarios
Model the programme impact of procurement delays, long-lead item risks, and interface dependencies with third parties. We assess the consequences of delayed material deliveries, late subcontractor mobilisation, and interface delays from other contractors or authorities. We identify critical procurement and interface milestones and quantify the programme impact of delays to these milestones.Alternative Sequence & Methodology Analysis
Evaluate alternative construction sequences and methodologies to identify the most efficient approach to delivering the project. We model different sequencing options, assess their programme and resource implications, and compare outcomes to support decision-making. We help project teams identify opportunities to improve programme performance through smarter sequencing and methodology choices.Tender & Bid Scenario Analysis
Develop scenario analyses to support tender and bid submissions. We model the programme implications of different delivery strategies, resource levels, and staging approaches to identify the optimal bid programme. We assess the schedule risk of different approaches and support bid teams in making informed decisions about programme commitments and contingency allowances.Dispute & Claim Scenario Analysis
Develop scenario analyses to support commercial negotiations and dispute resolution. We model alternative delay scenarios, assess the programme implications of different causation arguments, and quantify the range of possible EOT outcomes. We provide project teams and legal advisers with clear, evidence-based analysis of the schedule consequences of different factual and legal positions.
Who We Are
Our What-If and Scenario Analysis team combines certified scheduling professionals with experienced construction practitioners and commercial managers. We understand how to build and interrogate complex schedule models, and we understand the commercial and contractual context in which scenario analysis is used. We are experienced Primavera P6 practitioners with a track record of delivering scenario analysis across major rail, transport, and infrastructure projects in NSW and Queensland. Our analysis is technically rigorous, clearly communicated, and directly relevant to the decisions our clients need to make.
Provides strategic oversight and technical leadership on what-if and scenario analysis engagements. Felipe brings 20+ years in design, construction, and project delivery across major infrastructure programs. He supports scenario analysis with deep understanding of construction methodology, sequencing constraints, and the practical consequences of change on project execution.
Leads FR2’s what-if and scenario analysis services. Rodrigo brings 20+ years of commercial and project controls experience across major rail and infrastructure programs. He ensures scenario analysis is framed around the commercial and contractual questions that matter — supporting variation claims, EOT entitlements, and dispute resolution with rigorous, evidence-based schedule analysis.
Develops what-if and scenario analyses for rail and infrastructure projects in live network environments. Fran has extensive experience across Sydney Trains, Sydney Metro, and Queensland Rail networks. She specialises in access and possession scenario modelling, where changes to possession windows and access arrangements have significant programme consequences.
What We’ve Delivered
Scope Change & Variation Analysis
Conducted what-if analyses to assess the programme impact of scope changes and design variations on major rail and infrastructure projects. Provided project teams and clients with clear, evidence-based analysis of schedule consequences before commitments were made. Supported timely EOT notifications and variation claims on projects including TAP4, SMP4, and Cross River Rail.Access & Possession Scenario Modelling
Modelled the programme implications of changes to possession windows and access arrangements on live rail projects. Assessed the impact of reduced access, cancelled possessions, and changed access conditions on construction sequences and completion dates. Supported commercial negotiations and EOT claims arising from access-related delays.Tender Scenario Analysis
Developed scenario analyses to support competitive tender submissions on major infrastructure projects. Modelled the programme implications of different delivery strategies, resource levels, and staging approaches to identify the optimal bid programme. Supported bid teams in making informed decisions about programme commitments and risk allowances.Dispute & Claim Scenario Analysis
Developed scenario analyses to support commercial negotiations and dispute resolution proceedings. Modelled alternative delay scenarios, assessed the programme implications of different causation arguments, and quantified the range of possible EOT outcomes. Provided project teams and legal advisers with clear, evidence-based analysis to support their positions.
Related Services
Baseline Programme Development
A robust baseline programme is the foundation for meaningful what-if analysis — providing the reference point against which scenarios are assessed.
Critical Path Analysis
Critical path analysis that identifies which activities and sequences are most sensitive to change — focusing scenario analysis where it matters most.
Time Impact Analysis
Prospective TIA that uses what-if scenario modelling to quantify the impact of delay events on project completion dates.
Schedule Acceleration & Recovery
Recovery options assessment using scenario analysis to identify and compare the programme and cost implications of different recovery strategies.
Extension of Time Services
EOT claim development supported by what-if scenario analysis that quantifies the programme impact of delay events.
Commercial Management
Commercial strategy and negotiation support informed by scenario analysis of schedule and cost implications.
Our Approach
- Define the Question – We begin by understanding the decision or question that the scenario analysis needs to answer. Clear problem definition ensures the analysis is focused, relevant, and directly useful to the people who need to act on it.
- Establish the Reference Programme – We confirm the reference programme against which scenarios will be assessed. This is typically the accepted baseline programme or the current updated programme. We validate the reference programme before developing scenarios to ensure the analysis is built on a sound foundation.
- Develop Scenarios – We develop the scenarios to be modelled, defining the assumptions, changes, and inputs for each. We work with project teams to ensure scenarios are realistic, relevant, and cover the range of outcomes that matter for decision-making.
- Model in Primavera P6 – We model each scenario in Primavera P6, creating separate schedule copies for each scenario to preserve the integrity of the reference programme. We apply the scenario inputs, run the schedule, and capture the results.
- Analyse & Compare – We analyse the results of each scenario, compare outcomes against the reference programme and against each other, and identify the key drivers of difference. We assess the impact on the critical path, completion date, float, and milestones.
- Report & Recommend – We prepare clear, accessible scenario analysis reports that present findings in a format suitable for the intended audience — whether project teams, clients, commercial managers, or legal advisers. We provide recommendations based on the analysis to support decision-making.
Why Choose FR2
- Decision-Focused Analysis – We frame scenario analysis around the decisions and questions that matter to our clients. We don’t produce analysis for its own sake — we produce analysis that directly supports the decisions project teams and commercial managers need to make.
- Construction Knowledge – Our analysts understand how projects are built. We develop scenarios that reflect real-world construction constraints and are credible to project teams, clients, and adjudicators.
- Commercial Integration – We integrate scenario analysis with commercial management. Our analyses are framed around the commercial and contractual questions that matter — supporting variation claims, EOT entitlements, and dispute resolution.
- Primavera P6 Expertise – We are experienced Primavera P6 practitioners. We develop scenario models that are technically rigorous, correctly configured, and produce reliable, defensible results.
- Rail & Infrastructure Specialists – We have deep experience in live rail environments where access and possession scenarios are particularly complex and commercially significant. We understand how changes to access arrangements affect programme performance in operational rail corridors.
- Clear Communication – We present complex scenario analysis clearly and accessibly. We tailor our reporting to the audience — from detailed technical reports for scheduling experts to concise executive summaries for senior decision-makers.
Get in Touch
Need to understand the programme implications of a scope change, access restriction, risk event, or alternative delivery strategy? Contact our What-If and Scenario Analysis team to discuss how we can help you model the schedule consequences of change and make confident, evidence-based decisions. Lead contacts: Rodrigo Sobarzo – Principal Commercial Manager rodrigo.sobarzo@fr2.com.au Felipe Ramirez – Managing Director felipe.ramirez@fr2.com.au Fran Rendic – Rail Infrastructure Specialist fran.rendic@fr2.com.au
More of the FR2 team
Architecture & sustainability integration for efficient built outcomes.
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Economics, data modelling & policy analysis for infrastructure decisions.
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Project planning, controls & delivery support for complex infrastructure.
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Commercial management, cost control & contract strategy on major programs.
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